Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
904 PM MDT Friday may 24 2013
Synopsis...a returning southwest flow aloft will bring a warming
trend through the Memorial Day weekend. An unsettled pattern will
develop across the region beginning early next week.
&&
Discussion...the dry and stable southwest flow between the
Pacific northwest upper low and the strong upper ridge across the
central Continental U.S. Will persist through at least Sunday. Warmer
temperatures are expected the next couple of days...with the
warmest temperatures over extreme southern through east-central Utah.
The persistent upper low over the Pacific northwest will breakdown
late Sunday...then reform over the eastern Gulf of Alaska early
next week. Prior to this at least a couple of weak shortwaves will
eject out of the main low and move across the northern rockies
and northern Great Basin this weekend. Not looking at any real
threat of convection across northern Utah...but the slightly
cooler air that gets nudged into the extreme northwest will keep
temperatures in check this weekend.
A period of more active weather appears to be taking shape
beginning early next week. The latest GFS generates a fairly
strong but low-amplitude cyclonic westerly into the coast Monday
with a diffluent westerly flow across the Great Basin. Cooler
temperatures along with plenty of clouds and some light precipitation expected
with this initial surge. The threat for precipitation will likely
increase moving into midweek as a series of increasingly strong
and colder systems plow into the Great Basin. The bottom line for
the extended period looks to be temperatures on the cool side with
substantial threat for precipitation heading in to the end of the current
forecast cycle.
No updates planned this evening.
&&
Aviation...VFR conditions under mostly clear skies will continue
at the kslc terminal through the forecast period. Light north
winds make the Switch Back to southeast drainage winds around 04-05z.
Breezy south winds are expected to develop on Saturday morning
between 16-17z.
&&
Fire weather...the dry cold front that dissipated over southern
Utah this afternoon ahas allowed breezy south winds to form once
again across much of southern and eastern Utah. A dry southwest
flow will prevail across the district this weekend with
gusty southwest winds in most locations both afternoons. Humidity
will remain low in the afternoon with poor overnight recoveries.
These weather elements would create areas of critical fire weather
conditions if fuels were critical. However fuels are not critical
at this time and thus have not issued any fire weather highlights.
A series of Pacific systems will affect the area beginning late
Sunday...with a threat of isolated dry thunderstorms across the
north Sunday and a better chance of showers and thunderstorms
north and central portions Monday along with higher humidity. The
following system will bring a greater chance of showers and
thunderstorms late Tuesday through Wednesday with an increasing
chance of wetting rain.
&&
Slc watches/warnings/advisories...
Utah...none.
Wyoming...none.
&&
$$
Conger
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