Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:17 PM GMT on March 22, 2012 | +37 |
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
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never seen this kind of heat in march... im sitting in class wearing shorts and flip flops in march... completly unheard of..
your welcome to take a visit to NC here and enjoy the sunshine and isolated T-storms!
I agree, it is just a shame to those local ski business losing lots of potential $$, big slap in face to end a terrible winter season for them. Someone is gonna hit 30 in the maritimes today, I can just feel it.
yeah if i had to pick i would say Fredericton or St. Steven
I suspect that low level instability might climb pretty high today, as the piedmont doesnt have the low cloud bank hangin over like yesterday. Cumulus are abundant!
Low level Lapse Rates
SBCAPE in eastern NC ranging from 1000-1500 j/kg, no cap in place.
Diurnal heating would help the Gulf Stream heat up(the part located south of VA anyway) might end up above average for hurricane season, IMO.
ElNino normally means less storms overall, but with the very warm Gulf of Mexico.....the quick home brewed ones might be the much worst this year. We shall see very soon tho....
Data from 1900-1997 suggest that the chance of two or more hurricanes making landfall anywhere in the continental U.S. during an El Nino year is 28%, compared with 48% at other times and 66% during a La Nina period. The probabilities for at least one major hurricane striking are 23%, 58% and 63%, respectively. It is important to note that an El Nino event does not necessarily mean a season without any major hurricanes. Hurricane Betsy (1965), Hurricane Agnes (1972), and Hurricane Andrew (1992) all occurred during El Nino events and caused $9.7 billion, $10.8 billion, and $40.7 billion of damage, respectively (in 2009 USD).
Nice to note that these type of devastating El Nino storms do not happen that often based upon the percentages.
Link
Some of us on this blog could do this, but just don't have the credentials....
iam more concearn
with the setup of the shower curtain
and how that comes into play
because ever since it come on scene
a few years back
fla has not been touched by a major
hopefully the shower curtain is as strong as ever
this coming season
:)
8-)
Brian
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
452 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2012
FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-230300 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
452 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
WINDING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT. STORMS WILL PRODUCE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY
CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.
$$
JOHNSON
A far cry from the 80 degrees I was in with Tampa just weeks ago...I miss FL already. :)
Strange trip...the Keys, to Tampa, to WA state.
ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
945 AM MDT THU MAR 22 2011
TO ALL WR FIELD OFFICES
FROM WFO SLC
CORRECTED DATE AND TIME ABOVE IN THE HEADER.
DUE TO A FIRE AT NOAA HQ IN SILVER SPRING, EMAIL AND LDAP SERVICES
ARE IMPACTED. WE WILL BE UNABLE TO MAKE EMAIL ACCOUNT CHANGES AND
EMAIL GROUP CHANGES. THE AI.NEMS.NOAA.GOV WEBPAGE IS OFFLINE SO THE
EMPLOYEES AT YOUR OFFICES WILL BE UNABLE TO MAKE CHANGES TO EMAIL
GROUPS. ALL WEB SERVICES THAT UTLIZE LDAP EAST FOR AUTHENTICATION
WILL BE IMPACTED. IN ADDITION, EMAIL SENT TO GROUP EMAIL ADDRESSES
WILL BE IMPACTED.
INDIVIDUAL GOOGLE EMAIL, CALENDAR, DOC, ETC. ACCOUNTS ARE
UNAFFECTED.
THE MESSAGE OPERATIONS CENTER (MOC) DID NOT GIVE US AN ESTIMATED
TIME OF RESTORATION OF SERVICES BUT AS SOON AS WE HEAR MORE
INFORMATION, WE WILL LET YOU KNOW.
THANKS IN ADVANCE FOR YOUR PATIENCE. IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS,
PLEASE DIRECT THEM TO KARL.FOSTER@NOAA.GOV
ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1000 AM MDT THU MAR 22 2012
TO ALL WR FIELD OFFICES
FROM WR ROC
OPERATIONAL IMPACTS DUE TO GOES-15 SATELLITE OUTAGE:
APPROXIMATELY 3000 OBSERVATIONN PLATFORM ARE EXPERIENCING OUTAGES AT
THIS TIME. HADS IS THE MAIN SYSTEM IMPACTED BY THE OUTAGE WHICH
INCLUDES FIRE RAWS PLATFORMS AND HYDROMET PLATFORMS SUCH AS RIVER
STAGE AND PRECIPITATION DATA.
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
2210Z WED MAR 21 2012..GOES 15 SATELLITE DATA NOT AVAILABLE..
NESDIS`S SOCC REPORTED THAT GOES-15 WEST DATA IS NOT FLOWING DUE
TO A BAD MOMENTUM UNLOAD STARTING AT 2112Z. GOES-15 WENT INTO A
SUN ACQUISITION MODE AND IS UNABLE TO DO ANY IMAGING. OPERATIONS
PERSONNEL ARE TRYING TO PLACE GOES-13 INTO A FULL DISK IMAGING
MODE...SORRY FOR THE INCONVENIENCE..
It looks like saturday is going to be the day for severe weather threat for NC
yup! but i still get excited every day its sunny. lol
GOin to church, this was some amature thunderstorms.
4:59 PM GMT on March 22, 2012
Ugh, no typo, just an error. Corrected now. Halifax did not beat their April record, sorry for the boo-boo.
Jeff Masters
Daily records vs. monthly (or longer duration) records.
Most of the time, new records are daily records. This event has also set many records which may be referred to as all-time records, which probably refers to all-time monthly records or maybe 12-month/yearly records.
Is your hurricane emergency kit ready? Don't neglect to include the single most important item.
It's like a low that comes out of nowhere and kinda has fronts etc.
U.S. security at risk over water
Link
Report by the U.S. intelligence community assessment..
What's a "daily" record when it's at home? Ditto "monthly"? Etc?
Brian
Magnitude 5.2 - OAXACA, MEXICO
2012 March 22 16:46:46 UTC
Earthquake Details
This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.
Magnitude 5.2
Date-Time
Thursday, March 22, 2012 at 16:46:46 UTC
Thursday, March 22, 2012 at 10:46:46 AM at epicenter
Location
16.443°N, 98.300°W
Depth
12.2 km (7.6 miles)
Region
OAXACA, MEXICO
Distances
29 km (18 miles) SSE (154°) from Ometepec, Guerrero, Mexico
33 km (20 miles) WNW (295°) from Pinotepa Nacional, Oaxaca, Mexico
113 km (70 miles) SW (216°) from Tlaxiaco, Oaxaca, Mexico
177 km (110 miles) SE (134°) from Chilpancingo, Guerrero, Mexico
178 km (111 miles) ESE (104°) from Acapulco, Guerrero, Mexico
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 20.9 km (13.0 miles); depth +/- 6.4 km (4.0 miles)
Parameters
NST=282, Nph=285, Dmin=332.8 km, Rmss=0.75 sec, Gp= 94°,
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=B
Source
Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID
usc0008n9q
Nope, I've been posting this all week. If you remember you said there is no snow on the models later next week. Well Arctic air is coming down and the long range GFS is showing several snow evnts for the Great lakes & New England. This is going to be a huge shock for those folks up north as they have been so warm lately. Back to winter!
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1251 PM AST THU MAR 22 2012
PRC043-055-059-075-111-113-121-149-153-221845-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0035.120322T1651Z-120322T1845Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
COAMO PR-GUANICA PR-GUAYANILLA PR-JUANA DIAZ PR-PENUELAS PR-PONCE PR-
SABANA GRANDE PR-VILLALBA PR-YAUCO PR-
1251 PM AST THU MAR 22 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
COAMO...GUANICA...GUAYANILLA...JUANA DIAZ...PENUELAS...PONCE...
SABANA GRANDE...VILLALBA AND YAUCO
* UNTIL 245 PM AST
* AT 1251 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THESE
MUNICIPALITIES. RADAR ESTIMATES SHOWED THAT ONE TO ONE AND ONE-HALF
INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA
AND IT CONTINUED TO RAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF AT LEAST ONE INCH
IS EXPECTED THROUGH 245 PM AST.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
LAT...LON 1811 6693 1811 6672 1816 6640 1808 6638
1803 6670 1801 6695
$$
EM
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1209 PM AST THU MAR 22 2012
PRC019-021-045-047-101-105-107-135-221915-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0034.120322T1609Z-120322T1915Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BARRANQUITAS PR-BAYAMON PR-COMERIO PR-COROZAL PR-MOROVIS PR-
NARANJITO PR-OROCOVIS PR-TOA ALTA PR-
1209 PM AST THU MAR 22 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
BARRANQUITAS...BAYAMON...COMERIO...COROZAL...MOROV IS...
NARANJITO...OROCOVIS AND TOA ALTA
* UNTIL 315 PM AST
* AT 1208 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THESE
MUNICIPALITIES. RADAR ESTIMATES SHOWED THAT ONE TO ONE AND ONE-HALF
INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA
AND IT CONTINUED TO RAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF AT LEAST ONE INCH
IS EXPECTED THROUGH 315 PM AST.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
LAT...LON 1825 6640 1831 6638 1835 6616 1829 6614
1824 6629
$$
EM
I dont think I understand what you are asking...?
Heard about this problem a while ago.
Link
If goverments and intelligent experts listened to climate specialists more often we wouldn't be in this mess.
Well keep it away from me, I am enjoying this sunshine, temperatures in the 80's, and isolated thunderstorms to the fullest! :D
If notice on my post that the 540 line dips to NC. It's long range though so I'm sure this will change.
It's 86 here in C FL right now but either way 87 in MI is impressive for March.
In your link:
"It has been said that water will be "the oil of the 21st century," or "liquid gold," and that it will cause wars between nations."
In my opinion, though, once solar energy becomes very cheap due to rapid advances in technology then we can start exploiting the 97.5% of the water that is salted. That will give us a virtually unlimited amount of water. Desalination will be key in the coming decades. Therefore, I think there is little to worry about.
I still strongly believe climate change should be the only and most important problem in our heads right now. Not water, oil and whatnot.
Fossil fuels maybe our demise if we don't get a handle on this soon.
Looks impressive.
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