U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Previsión convectiva)

día tres

acus01 kwns 150535 
Storm Prediction Center ac 150534 

Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1134 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017 

Valid 151200z - 161200z 

..no thunderstorm areas forecast... 

thunderstorm threat is less than 10%. 


Southern stream has shifted to fairly low latitudes with a 
substantial upper trough expected to settle into northern Mexico. 
This feature will begin to eject toward south Texas late in the day1 
period but insufficient moisture/instability will prevent 
thunderstorm development across the south-central US. 

Elsewhere, cool, stable conditions are not conducive for deep 

.Darrow/leitman.. 12/15/2017 


Mesoscale Discussion

acus11 kwns 120330 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 120330 

Mesoscale discussion 1795 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0930 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 

Areas affected...central New York 

Concerning...heavy snow 

Valid 120330z - 120930z 

Summary...snowfall rates will increase gradually through 06-09z, 
with peak rates likely to exceed 1 inch per hour from about 07-12z. 

Discussion...in association with a midlevel shortwave trough 
approaching the upper Ohio Valley, a deformation snow band has been 
developing eastward over Lake Erie. Low-midlevel warm 
advection/ascent in advance of the trough, as well as weak 
frontogenesis, will support additional eastward expansion of the 
snow band across central New York through the early morning hours. 
Top-down saturation of the column is just beginning across western 
into central NY, and snowfall rates will increase as column 
saturation develops eastward and forcing for ascent increases 
through the early morning hours. Peak snowfall rates should 
approach or exceed 1 inch per hour, and may persist for 3-6 hours at 
locations within the expected corridor of the snow band. 

.Thompson.. 12/12/2017 

..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Latitude...Lon 43217361 43007412 42747497 42497608 42457687 42517744 
42667771 43037760 43837544 44037419 43947361 43617347