U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Previsión convectiva)

Hoy
Mañana
día tres

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Storm Prediction Center ac 150534 


Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1134 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017 


Valid 151200z - 161200z 


..no thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
thunderstorm threat is less than 10%. 


... 


Southern stream has shifted to fairly low latitudes with a 
substantial upper trough expected to settle into northern Mexico. 
This feature will begin to eject toward south Texas late in the day1 
period but insufficient moisture/instability will prevent 
thunderstorm development across the south-central US. 


Elsewhere, cool, stable conditions are not conducive for deep 
convection. 


.Darrow/leitman.. 12/15/2017 


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Mesoscale Discussion


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sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 120330 
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Mesoscale discussion 1795 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0930 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 


Areas affected...central New York 


Concerning...heavy snow 


Valid 120330z - 120930z 


Summary...snowfall rates will increase gradually through 06-09z, 
with peak rates likely to exceed 1 inch per hour from about 07-12z. 


Discussion...in association with a midlevel shortwave trough 
approaching the upper Ohio Valley, a deformation snow band has been 
developing eastward over Lake Erie. Low-midlevel warm 
advection/ascent in advance of the trough, as well as weak 
frontogenesis, will support additional eastward expansion of the 
snow band across central New York through the early morning hours. 
Top-down saturation of the column is just beginning across western 
into central NY, and snowfall rates will increase as column 
saturation develops eastward and forcing for ascent increases 
through the early morning hours. Peak snowfall rates should 
approach or exceed 1 inch per hour, and may persist for 3-6 hours at 
locations within the expected corridor of the snow band. 


.Thompson.. 12/12/2017 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...btv...aly...bgm...buf... 


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