Summer in March: more all-time March temperature records in U.S., Canada

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:53 PM GMT on March 21, 2012

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Summer in March continued for the eighth day yesterday, toppling dozens of records for hottest March day in both the U.S. and Canada. Nearly every major airport in Michigan's Lower Peninsula tied or set records for their hottest March temperature, including Detroit (82°), Flint (84°F), Saginaw (83°F), Grand Rapids (83°), Muskegon (82°), Lansing (83°), Alpena (84°), Gaylord (80°), Pellston (84°), Traverse City (86°), and Houghton Lake (81°). Most of these records will be broken again today or tomorrow. Detroit's current string of six days over 70° is unprecedented so early in the year. One has to go back over 125 years to find an early-season warm spell that compares, and even that streak occurred in April, a full month later (April 16 - 24, 1886.)

Pellston, Michigan in the Northern Lower Peninsula is called "Michigan's Icebox", since it frequently records the coldest temperatures in the state, and in the entire nation. But the past four days, Pellston has topped out at 80° - 84°F, the first 80°F March days in their history. Yesterday's 84° reading broke the previous record for the date (55° in 1976 and 1948) by an unbelievable 29°, and was 44°F above average. Nearby Traverse City hit 86°F yesterday, which was 45°F above the average high for the date, and was the fourth consecutive day with a hottest March temperature on record.


Figure 1. Summer-like temperatures this March in the Midwest have heated up Lake Michigan to record warm levels for this time of year. The average temperature of the lake is characteristic of what occurs in June. Image credit: NOAA. Thanks to wunderground member Neapolitan for posting this image in my blog comments.

Hot times in Lake Michigan
The NWS in Chicago reported yesterday that the Windy City's high of 85°F that day boosted the average temperature for the month to levels that would make March the 7th warmest April in the city's 140-year record. The unprecedented March warmth in the states surrounding Lake Michigan have heated the lake to temperatures never seen before this early in the year. Water temperatures at the South Lake Michigan buoy were 46 - 47°F yesterday (8°C), which is about 10°F above average for this time of year, and typical of early June temperatures.

Record March warmth spreads into New England
Temperatures across much of Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine yesterday were the warmest on record for so early in the year. Burlington, Vermont's 80°F was 39°F above the average high for the date, and the earliest 80° reading in recorded history. Concord, New Hampshire (81°) and Bangor, Maine (78°), also had their warmest temperatures for so early in the year. The 73°F recorded in Caribou, Maine tied for that city's highest March temperature on record, and broke the record for the date by a remarkable 23°F.

Record warmth continues in Canada
Numerous all-time warmest March temperatures were recorded in Ontario, Canada yesterday, including Windsor at 27°C (previous record, 26.6°C), Sarnia (26°C, previous record 25.6°C), and London (25°C, previous record 24.8°C). High temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday across Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia are likely to break records for hottest March day for most of the major cities in these provinces, including Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal, St. Johns, and Halifax.


Figure 2. The jet stream pattern features a large, southwards dipping bulge over the Western U.S., creating a trough of low pressure with cold and snow, and a large, northwards looping bulge over the Central U.S., creating a record-strength ridge of high pressure. The Western U.S. trough has cut off into a "cut-off low" that will slowly drift eastwards during the remainder of the week.

Summer in March ends by Friday
The unprecedented Summer in March conditions are due to a loop in the jet stream that has created a large upper-level ridge of high pressure that is stuck in place over the Eastern U.S. Since the jet stream acts as the boundary between cold air to the north and warm air to the south, and the large loop in the jet places its axis far to the north of the eastern U.S., summer-like warmth has developed over the eastern half of the U.S. Conversely, colder than average temperatures have developed over the western third of the U.S. behind the southwards-dipping loop of the jet stream. This jet stream pattern is too extreme to be stable, and the big loop over the Western U.S. has broken off to form a giant eddy. The resulting area of low pressure is known as a "cut-off low", because it is cut off from the jet stream. The cut-off low will drift slowly eastwards during the week, gradually bringing an end to "Summer in March" over the Eastern half of the U.S. by Friday.

How rare is this Summer in March heat event?
One measure of how record-breaking this "Summer in March" heat wave has been is the impact it had on NOAA's National Climatic Data Center web site. The extremes section of the their web site has been down since last Friday, since their software has been unable to handle both the huge number of records being set and the huge demand from people wanting to see these records. The web site came back on-line this morning with software re-engineered to handle the load, but only with data through Sunday.

We can also quantify how rare a meteorological event is by looking at statistics of past years. By averaging together at least 30 years of data to take a representative snapshot of the climate, we can generate a mean and a standard deviation of the data. The standard deviation gives a measure of how much the data fluctuates around the mean.

In comparing deviations from normal across wide regions, it helps to normalize the deviations. A temperature deviation of 3 degrees C may be not that unusual in one region, but may be very significant in another. The solution is to use climatological anomalies (which we often refer to by the Greek letter, sigma.) Calculating the climatological anomaly is a two step process. First, we calculate the difference between a quantity (i.e., temperature) and it's 30-year average value. Then we normalize the difference by dividing it with the 30-year standard deviation. From statistical theory, we know how unusual climatological anomalies are by value:

Odds of a deviation > 1 climatological anomaly=31.7%
Odds of a deviation > 2 climatological anomalies=4.5%
Odds of a deviation > 3 climatological anomalies=0.27%
Odds of a deviation > 4 climatological anomalies=6.34/1000%
Odds of a deviation > 5 climatological anomalies=5.7/100000%
Odds of a deviation > 6 climatological anomalies=1.9/1000000%

So, if we have a 30-year history of high temperatures for a particular date, we'd expect 20 of those years to be 1-sigma years, when the temperature is plus or minus 34% of average (ten colder years, and ten warmer years.) Rare 2-sigma events occur 4.5% of the time, so we should have about 16 of these per year. Even rarer 3-sigma events occur just 0.27% of the time, or just one day per year, on average. Truly extreme 4-sigma events should only occur once every 43 years. Much of Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, Northeast Iowa, and the eastern Dakota have experienced multiple 4-sigma days over the past week.

Wunderground is computing 30-year means of the weather for each day of the year using data from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) (NOMADS data repository). Here is a description how a reanalysis works. CFSR is notable because it is the first reanalysis to use a coupled atmosphere-ocean model. As a result, CFSR has physically consistent estimates of the conditions of the atmosphere, ocean, and land. CFSR has data from 1979 (When polar-orbiting satellites became able to estimate vertical profiles of temperature) to 2010. We can take the mean and standard deviation for each calendar day using this history, and compare it to the current forecast from the GFS model. The result is an image showing how far from average the temperatures are. Yesterday, the analysis showed that Michigan experienced temperatures that were 4 - 5 climatological anomalies warmer than average (4-sigma to 5-sigma), the type of extreme that occurs between once every 43 years and once every 4779 years. Of course, using 30 years of data to estimate extreme events with a return period of centuries is a sketchy proposition. However, keep in mind that had we used a century-long climatology instead of using the past 30 years, yesterday's warmth would have been classified as much more extreme, since the climate has warmed considerably in the past 30 years. It is highly unlikely the warmth of the current "Summer in March" heat wave could have occurred unless the climate was warming.


Figure 3. Climatological anomalies for March 20, 2012. Michigan experienced temperatures that were 4 - 5 climatological anomalies warmer than average (4-sigma to 5-sigma), the type of extreme that occurs between once every 43 years and once every 4779 years. Wunderground plans to make these plots available in real time on our web site later this year.

Heavy rains create flash flood concerns in Texas, Louisiana, and Oklahoma
Widespread rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches have fallen over the past two days in Eastern Texas, Eastern Oklahoma, Western Arkansas, and Louisiana over the past two days, creating a serious flash flood hazard. So far, no major river flooding has been reported, and it appears the damage from this flood event will be limited. A few rainfall amounts from the event, from 7 pm CDT Sunday - 3 am CDT Wednesday, taken from the latest NWS Storm Summary:

...TEXAS...
ORANGE 9.68
WACO 6.17
FORT HOOD AAF/KILLEEN 5.43
DALLAS LOVE FIELD 4.49
NWS FORT WORTH 4.13

...OKLAHOMA...
LANGLEY 7.16
NORMAN 5.55
TULSA 4.52
MCALESTER 4.02
OKLAHOMA CITY 3.18

...LOUISIANA...
FORT POLK 6.14
SHREVEPORT 4.06
LAKE CHARLES 2.11

...ARKANSAS...
FORT SMITH 3.49
BENTONVILLE 3.09
LITTLE ROCK 2.22
FAYETTEVILLE 2.08


Jeff Masters

Hot Hot Hot (llpj04)
wait ......we are suppose to play this in the summer
Hot Hot Hot
HOT !!!!!!!! (emixam101)
5h05 PM today, the Local Weather Station in Beauceville reported 22C, (73F) ! An ALL TIME RECORD ALL MARCH MONTHS CONFUSED SINCE 1871 ! The previous record was 20.6C (69F) recorded on March 30th 1977.We also broke the daily record of 12C (54F) recorded on 1970.On local thermomethers with sun sensation, put them up to 29C (84F) ! Guys in Arizona, DON'T SEARCH THE HEAT ! IT IS IN QUEBEC AS INSANE AS I LOOKS !!!!!! I LOVE IT, KEEP THE SNOW !!! :)))P
HOT !!!!!!!!
Happy Spring! (gardner48197)
Happy First Day of Spring everyone!
Happy Spring!

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635. ChrisDudley
2:51 PM GMT on March 23, 2012
"Of course, using 30 years of data to estimate extreme events with a return period of centuries is a sketchy proposition. However, keep in mind that had we used a century-long climatology instead of using the past 30 years, yesterday's warmth would have been classified as much more extreme, since the climate has warmed considerably in the past 30 years. It is highly unlikely the warmth of the current "Summer in March" heat wave could have occurred unless the climate was warming."

This statement does not hold up to scrutiny. First, it appears that about half the warming in March in the region in the last 100 years occurred in the last 30 years but the warming amounts to too small an amount to shift the baseline much compared to the sigma unit scale. You can shift the baseline by about 1 F by going to the longer timescale climate, small potatoes compared to a 30 F excursion.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/do_nmap .py?year_last=2012&month_last=2&sat=4&sst=1&type=t rends&mean_gen=03&year1=1982&year2=2011&base1=1951 &base2=1980&radius=250&pol=reg

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/do_nmap .py?year_last=2012&month_last=2&sat=4&sst=1&type=t rends&mean_gen=03&year1=1912&year2=2011&base1=1951 &base2=1980&radius=250&pol=reg

Second, the mathematics of sigma estimation is against this statement. In the presence of a trend, taking a longer timescale climate estimate can lead to a larger step in the sigma scale.

Consider the numbers 1 through 20 taken in order but treated as though they were normally distributed. What is the distance between the number 21 and the sample mean in sample deviation units if we take the last ten numbers or the whole set of numbers as our sample? 1.82 or 1.77. 21 is less of an outlier from the group of numbers 1 through 20 than from the group 11 through 20. Failing to account for degrees of freedom makes the effect stronger.

The basic trouble is making attribution statements about warming based only on local estimates of climate. First, the warming is global with substantial local variation. Second, 5 sigma may be rare in one place, but you expect 5 sigma somewhere sometime so why not now in the Midwest?

James Hansen has done some recent work with co-workers that addresses this problem. They have been looking at what fraction of the Earth's surface has a high deviation in a particular period. This makes a global measure to compare with global warming. And, it puts high deviations within their correct universe: are they happening more often rather that are they happening at all. Taking this approach, attribution can be backed out to some extent for the particular extremes that go to make up the global measure.

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2012/20120 105_PerceptionsAndDice.pdf
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
634. yqt1001
7:23 PM GMT on March 22, 2012
Political compass for US primaries are out. And if we look...Mitt Romney is pretty much right on top of Obama when it comes to their policies.

Link

Looks like change may never come if everyone is the same but refuse to agree. :P
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1285
633. Jedkins01
6:18 PM GMT on March 22, 2012
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Perhaps, but don't you think it's rather odd that all three of NASA's primary North American facilities were struck by historic tropical systems in only three years? The odds were statistically very much against this. These were not glancing blows either, but direct hits.

It seems to me that someone may be trying to send U.S. a powerful message, and whatever it is, it can apparently steer hurricanes, or perhaps even create them.




Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7310
632. SteveDa1
2:30 PM GMT on March 22, 2012
Quoting percylives:
While we "bask" in the March summer, the far north has held onto the cold and the ice extent shows this.



When melt season does begin, it will have to be very rapid to threaten the records. Something else to watch this year.


In my opinion, the warmth doesn't need to be pronounced this melting season to break the record low. Yes the area of sea ice is extensive but keep in mind that the total volume is actually way below normal.



Much of that ice is only 1 year old and it will quickly melt. We only need a very warm summer in the Arctic to smash the record by a few hundreds of thousands of km^2.

Considering the multi-year ice around Northern Greenland will probably be hardest to melt completely, I'd say we have between 8-12 years until the Arctic is completely ice free in September.
Member Since: October 17, 2006 Posts: 60 Comments: 1297
631. ScottLincoln
2:24 PM GMT on March 22, 2012
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
RE: 604 Careful Percy! You'll wreck the narrative.


Doug... ice that forms quickly over a few weeks during a cold spell, especially this late in the freeze period, is rotten thin ice. The ice will melt quickly once it begins and that short of a period of data can't say anything about climate, thus I am not sure how you could conceivably think it says anything about any narrative.

Looks like 3 of the last 5 years accumulated ice to near climatological averages early in the season, yet still managed to melt to very anomalous values by early fall:
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-dat a/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_ext_small.p ng

There is also no reflection of this rise in the estimated sea ice volume, reflecting the rotten, thin nature of the ice:
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3172
630. hydrus
2:22 PM GMT on March 22, 2012
Not as heavy today, but in the same area..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20547
629. hydrus
2:17 PM GMT on March 22, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:


Hurricanes naturally weaken when they approach land due to unfavorable environmental factors. I see no reason to assume HAARP is doing it.
HAARP kills them and makes , member..:)....One low moves out, and another moves in. This time further north..Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20547
628. Xandra
1:41 PM GMT on March 22, 2012
.
Member Since: November 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1281
627. Skyepony (Mod)
1:30 PM GMT on March 22, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy:
597. That's probably because NASA's builds its facilities along the coast of the GOMEX. Besides, the only NASA places I recall being hit with a hurricane is Johnson Space Center and Michoud Assembly Facility by Ike and Gustav respectively. Kennedy Space Center hasn't seen a direct hurricane landfall in years and that's one of the biggies for NASA..


One of the strangest & most controversial storms of last year directly hit KSC...agreed it wasn't a hurricane, but it was odd.


Kori~ I'm not saying it's harrp for sure being used for this..It's just odd to have the most strongest & longest signature of what ever that is MIMIC is picking up on come from out of the picture in the general direction of a known installation. They don't teach about Tesla in public school here anymore. Do you know anything about him? How the govt collected all his work after he died? What a tesla tower is? How he used to drive his car around that was powered by that tower through thin air? How you can make music with lightning? You could read for weeks about all this & I bet have way more questions than you do now.. It would be way more interesting discussion if you did.

Big business doesn't throw millions at the placebo affect. You are discounting a billion dollar industry that the night before you didn't believe existed on what grounds? The dollars involved screams that it works & is very profitable, not to mention the studies.

Yeah it doesn't work everywhere all the time. Obviously no point in seeding the death ridge. But your all or nothing & we will never be able to attitude...if Tesla had that we wouldn't have alternating current.

TomTaylor~ watch the loop it sucks the life from it & changes the direction both times. It always moves in the same angle to that anomaly as well. I watch MIMICs across the land. This sort of anomaly only happens if American land is threatened. The govt tells up hurricane modification is ongoing. I'm just pointing out chances are..your seeing it right there.


I meant to mention lastnight I watched the animated loop of the gulf & I got to agree with Jedkins..outflow boundary.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37469
626. Tropicsweatherpr
1:21 PM GMT on March 22, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:


A moderate to strong one by the end of summer that model shows. This is going to be an interesting hurricane season. Odds are in our favor for us to see an El-Nino this year whether some on here like it or not. Remember though even though we may end up with 10 to 12 storms that doesn't necessarly mean good news for the US as this could be the year we see a major hit the US.


Where will the systems go (Regardless of numbers) will be very mportant to see how the U.S will fare this year in terms of landfalls.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14076
625. jeffs713
1:12 PM GMT on March 22, 2012
bear in mind that even though the models are forecasting an El Nino year, it is very common when ENSO changes for the effects of the change to lag a bit. Especially in regards to the Atlantic hurricane season - El Nino doesn't "hit its stride" until late in the year (OND), while hurricane season peaks Aug/Sep. So it is entirely possible to have an active season in a transition year.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5875
624. StormTracker2K
1:04 PM GMT on March 22, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
ECMWF March update continues to forecast El Nino.

Febuary



March



A moderate to strong one by the end of summer that model shows. This is going to be an interesting hurricane season. Odds are in our favor for us to see an El-Nino this year whether some on here like it or not. Remember though even though we may end up with 10 to 12 storms that doesn't necessarly mean good news for the US as this could be the year we see a major hit the US.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
623. Patrap
12:59 PM GMT on March 22, 2012
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
622. Tropicsweatherpr
12:42 PM GMT on March 22, 2012
ECMWF March update continues to forecast El Nino.

Febuary



March

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14076
621. Patrap
12:36 PM GMT on March 22, 2012
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.



TORNADO WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 701 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
TORNADO WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 452 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
620. Patrap
12:35 PM GMT on March 22, 2012
Wet and cooler here,,,

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
619. PensacolaDoug
12:32 PM GMT on March 22, 2012
RE: 604 Careful Percy! You'll wreck the narrative.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 553
618. SPLbeater
12:15 PM GMT on March 22, 2012
Maybe some more daytime thunderstorms for me?
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
617. StormTracker2K
12:06 PM GMT on March 22, 2012
Quoting SPLbeater:


He is talking about the South China Sea. the area located between Vietnam and the Phillipines. That small system that the ECMWF has consistently shown developing.


Know ur geographics, lol


Look at post 616
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
616. StormTracker2K
12:03 PM GMT on March 22, 2012
Edit: Sorry I didn't see the little guy to the south. I need coffee this morning!
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
615. SPLbeater
12:03 PM GMT on March 22, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Extra tropical system. Way to far north for anything tropical. Again not a tropical system!!


He is talking about the South China Sea. the area located between Vietnam and the Phillipines. That small system that the ECMWF has consistently shown developing.


Know ur geographics, lol
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
614. weathermanwannabe
12:01 PM GMT on March 22, 2012
Good Morning. Lot's of "training" effect for the upper Gulf Coast, and other parts of the mid-US, based upon the trajectory of the low. Almost looks like the same radar loops I was looking at yesterday morning as a squall line was approaching New Orleans. I supposed Pat or someone in those parts or Texas can fill us it on how bad the flooding is in their parts from the downpours.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8856
613. StormTracker2K
12:01 PM GMT on March 22, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:


How much rain did you get yesterday?
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
612. LargoFl
11:58 AM GMT on March 22, 2012
Good Morning folks! wow we got a Great soaking rain last night, lasted a long time too, man we really needed that rain, forecast today says we might get some more, i hope that pans out..well have a great day everyone
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37103
611. StormTracker2K
11:56 AM GMT on March 22, 2012
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
610. LargoFl
11:55 AM GMT on March 22, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
345 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2012

...SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE LATE TODAY...


.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
AREA TODAY. THERE REMAINS A CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS
GUIDANCE POPS BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET SOLUTIONS. THE MET GUIDANCE
PERFORMED CONSIDERABLY BETTER FOR YESTERDAY AND AM CURRENTLY LEANING
TOWARDS ITS HIGHER VALUES FOR TODAY. THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL BE
CONTROLLED BY RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC WHICH WILL
CONTRIBUTE EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER IT WILL BE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW THAT
WILL BE OVERCOME BY A SEABREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON. AS RIDGING ALOFT
BUILDS IN THERE WILL BE A WEAKENING WIND FIELD DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE ATMOSPHERE. PWATS WILL APPROACH 1.5 INCHES AGAIN TODAY. THE
COMBINATION OF ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM THE SEABREEZE WILL
COMBINE WITH INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP CONVECTION ON THE BOUNDARY AGAIN
TODAY. 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -11C AND LI VALUES OF -4 DEMONSTRATE THE
INSTABILITY PRESENT TODAY WITH SURFACE TEMPS CONTINUING TO RUN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. SO WILL GO WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS AND EXPECT THAT WITH
NEAR 0 STORM MOVEMENT...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY TODAYS
STORMS. THE NAM SHOWS THE ACTIVITY LINGERING WELL THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECTING THE WEAK WIND FIELDS...THERE
WILL BE ALMOST NO PUSH TO MOVE THE ACTIVITY AND SO WILL KEEP POPS
HIGH THROUGH 06Z AS THE ACTIVITY SLOWLY WINDS DOWN.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37103
609. StormTracker2K
11:54 AM GMT on March 22, 2012
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
345 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2012

...SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE LATE TODAY...


.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
AREA TODAY. THERE REMAINS A CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS
GUIDANCE POPS BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET SOLUTIONS. THE MET GUIDANCE
PERFORMED CONSIDERABLY BETTER FOR YESTERDAY AND AM CURRENTLY LEANING
TOWARDS ITS HIGHER VALUES FOR TODAY. THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL BE
CONTROLLED BY RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC WHICH WILL
CONTRIBUTE EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER IT WILL BE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW THAT
WILL BE OVERCOME BY A SEABREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON. AS RIDGING ALOFT
BUILDS IN THERE WILL BE A WEAKENING WIND FIELD DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE ATMOSPHERE. PWATS WILL APPROACH 1.5 INCHES AGAIN TODAY. THE
COMBINATION OF ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM THE SEABREEZE WILL
COMBINE WITH INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP CONVECTION ON THE BOUNDARY AGAIN
TODAY. 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -11C AND LI VALUES OF -4 DEMONSTRATE THE
INSTABILITY PRESENT TODAY WITH SURFACE TEMPS CONTINUING TO RUN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. SO WILL GO WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS AND EXPECT THAT WITH
NEAR 0 STORM MOVEMENT...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY TODAYS
STORMS. THE NAM SHOWS THE ACTIVITY LINGERING WELL THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECTING THE WEAK WIND FIELDS...THERE
WILL BE ALMOST NO PUSH TO MOVE THE ACTIVITY AND SO WILL KEEP POPS
HIGH THROUGH 06Z AS THE ACTIVITY SLOWLY WINDS DOWN.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
608. StormTracker2K
11:53 AM GMT on March 22, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Is not ten days anymore but eight that ECMWF develops in the South China Sea.



And look what happens two days later,boom.





Edit
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
607. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:46 AM GMT on March 22, 2012
We're only stuck with this upper level low for three more days. 72 hours and it is pretty much gone. We still have to deal with very heavy rain and the potential for Severe Weather between now and then.

SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook:



SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31575
606. Tropicsweatherpr
11:32 AM GMT on March 22, 2012
Is not ten days anymore but eight that ECMWF develops in the South China Sea.



And look what happens two days later,boom.



Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14076
605. Tropicsweatherpr
10:55 AM GMT on March 22, 2012
Good morning to all. A rather wet next couple of days is expected for Puerto Rico as a deep trough and a jet streak combine.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
609 AM AST THU MAR 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP TROUGH PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE ATLC INTO THE
CARIBBEAN OVR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. STRONG HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL BUILD SWD OVR THE WEEKEND WHILE WEAKENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ACARS PLOT INDICATE
THAT THE TWO SEPARATE JET STREAKS THAT WERE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA
AND SOUTH OF PR EARLIER IN THE WEEK HAVE MERGED INTO ONE SINGLE
JET STREAK PER SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
RECENTLY AND ACARS PLOT SHOWING THE CORE OF A 90-KT JET STREAK NOW
SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. CUTOFF LOW NORTH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVR THE NEXT 36 HRS BUT IT IS THE S/W TROUGH
OVR ERN CUBA CLEARLY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY EWD NEXT 24 HRS AND ENHANCE CHANCES OF SIG RAINFALL TODAY
AND TONIGHT. LOCAL AREA WILL ALSO BECOME UNDER THE DIVERGENT SIDE
OF LEFT EXIT REGION OF 90KT JET STREAK LOCATED SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHEAST PR TODAY. THOUGHT
ABOUT ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHEAST PR AS PW VALUES
RISE TO NEAR TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND K INDICES
RISE TO 30 AND ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITH SHOWALTER INDICES
BECOMING INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE. NORTHEAST PR IS AN AREA TO CLOSELY
WATCH FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING AS AREA RIVERS ARE SHORT IN
LENGTH AND VERY FLASHY.

SLIGHT DRYING WILL COMMENCE ON FRI AS JET STREAK DEPARTS AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY ADVECTING LOWER PW VALUES
BUT WITH ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY STILL TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA
ASSOCIATED TO CUTOFF LOW UNSETTLED WX WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR SUN WITH SIG IMPROVEMENT TO THE
WEATHER EXPECTED.

NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS CUTOFF LOW OVR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND INDUCE STRONG SFC
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE TIDEWATER AREA OF VIRGINIA ON SUN. AS
LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE NW ATLC LOW PRES WILL DEEPEN
RAPIDLY AND BRING A SHEARLINE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUE WITH CDFNT
APPROACHING THE AREA ON THU. THIS LOW WILL ALSO GENERATE STORM TO
POTENTIALLY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE WRN ATLC.
MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN INDICATING FOR THE PAST SVRL DAYS THIS LOW
GETTING CUTOFF AS IT GETS BLOCKED BY CNTRL ATLC BLOCKING RIDGE. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT SFC RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING ACTUAL CDFNT/DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY THROUGH
OUR AREA LATE NEXT WEEK WITH DEEP NORTHERLIES WITH A REFRESHINGLY
COOL AND DRY AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
FREQUENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES. LLVL
WINDS ARE ENE AT 10 TO 20 KT BELOW 10 KFT.


&&

.MARINE...ROUGH SEAS TODAY AS 20-KT WINDS GENERATE 5-7 FOOT SEAS.
WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT WITH A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS OVR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND MOIST AIR MASS KEEP RISK OF FUEL
IGNITION LOW. A CDFNT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA NEXT THU
WITH A SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR MASS BUILDING BEHIND IT. HOPEFULLY...MOST
AREAS WILL SEE SUFFICIENT RAINS OVR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS TO MITIGATE
ANY POTENTIAL THREATS LATE NEXT WEEK.


&&

.CLIMATE... A RECORD RAINFALL OF 0.42 INCHES WAS SET AT
CHRISTIANSTED AIRPORT/USVI YESTERDAY. THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD
OF 0.25 SET IN 2001. NEW DAILY RAINFALL RECORDS WILL LIKELY BE
SET AT SJU LMM INTL AIRPORT LATER TODAY AS SIG RAINFALL AMTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 73 82 73 / 70 70 70 30
STT 82 74 82 74 / 70 70 70 30



Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14076
604. percylives
10:45 AM GMT on March 22, 2012
While we "bask" in the March summer, the far north has held onto the cold and the ice extent shows this.



When melt season does begin, it will have to be very rapid to threaten the records. Something else to watch this year.
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 99
603. percylives
10:37 AM GMT on March 22, 2012
We had a nice shower here in the middle of VA last evening.

Since many of our plants, including the tulip poplars and my figs and mulberries are in full bloom, it will be appreciated no matter who (Mother Nature or "the government") provided it.

On a different topic, while its March Madness here in the US, Lionel Messi became the highest scorer in the history of the Barcelona Futball (Soccer) Club. He's only 24 years old and is a pleasure to watch play unless you happen to be an opposition goalie.
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 99
602. MahFL
10:34 AM GMT on March 22, 2012
Don't feed the trolls guys.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3381
601. CybrTeddy
10:09 AM GMT on March 22, 2012
597. That's probably because NASA's builds its facilities along the coast of the GOMEX. Besides, the only NASA places I recall being hit with a hurricane is Johnson Space Center and Michoud Assembly Facility by Ike and Gustav respectively. Kennedy Space Center hasn't seen a direct hurricane landfall in years and that's one of the biggies for NASA..
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23641
600. Dragod66
9:22 AM GMT on March 22, 2012
28 degrees here in hali today... beats our daily record by 16 degrees and our all time march temp by 1.5 degrees remember these numbers are celcius!!!
Member Since: August 24, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 604
599. GPTGUY
8:55 AM GMT on March 22, 2012
Training T-Storms set up right in Harrison County, Mississippi from Wednesday afternoon into the early morning hours Thursday..This is how much rain my wx station recorded north of Gulfport, MS. when the rains started..4.17" on Wednesday 5.50" from Midnight to just after 3am..and its still raining moderately here.
Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 391
598. KoritheMan
7:21 AM GMT on March 22, 2012
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Perhaps, but don't you think it's rather odd that all three of NASA's primary North American facilities were struck by historic tropical systems in only three years? The odds were statistically very much against this. These were not glancing blows either, but direct hits.

It seems to me that someone may be trying to send U.S. a powerful message, and whatever it is, it can apparently steer hurricanes, or perhaps even create them.


Or a coincidence is just that. Coincidence.

Humankind reads far too much into patterns where there are none. It's basic psychology (not to say I'm not susceptible to this myself, mind you).
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 560 Comments: 20030
597. OracleDeAtlantis
7:01 AM GMT on March 22, 2012
Quoting TomTaylor:
do you actually believe that stuff? It's one thing to acknowledge possibilities, but to actually believe in it...well that requires some evidence. A few lines on a microwave satellite loop could be anything and it did not appear to have substantially weakened the storm, nor did it cause the storm to significantly deviate from the models' projected path.

I understand weather modification is possible, but I do not believe we have the capability to fully weaken and steer a hurricane. Not to mention, I couldn't understand why the government would want to hide this information from us if it was in our own best interest and would certainly take a lot of money from us, the tax payers. Finally, there's no conclusive evidence to prove any of this.
Perhaps, but don't you think it's rather odd that all three of NASA's primary North American facilities were struck by historic tropical systems in only three years? The odds were statistically very much against this. These were not glancing blows either, but direct hits.

It seems to me that someone may be trying to send U.S. a powerful message, and whatever it is, it can apparently steer hurricanes, or perhaps even create them.
Member Since: August 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 504
596. TomTaylor
6:47 AM GMT on March 22, 2012
Quoting Skyepony:


UCAR mentions hurricane modification. I don't think that's done so much through cloud seeding anymore. In I think '08 Homeland Security tried to drag NOAA back into Weather modification concerning hurricanes. They want no part of weather modification other than issuing permits, research & such. The last few years we've seen this anomaly on MIMIC when there is a major threat. It turns & weakens hard. When I see it I drop total faith in my cast & the models. Even seen it on one about to nail I think Gaum. Some one saved it from Irene. I pointed this out when it happened in real time, the images haven't been fixed or anything. The first image..that may be coming from one of those harrp stations in the Caribbean. Most I've seen looks like they come from a ship or a few ships in a row placed nearby like the second image.
do you actually believe that stuff? It's one thing to acknowledge possibilities, but to actually believe in it...well that requires some evidence. A few lines on a microwave satellite loop could be anything and it did not appear to have substantially weakened the storm, nor did it cause the storm to significantly deviate from the models' projected path.

I understand weather modification is possible, but I do not believe we have the capability to fully weaken and steer a hurricane. Not to mention, I couldn't understand why the government would want to hide this information from us if it was in our own best interest and would certainly take a lot of money from us, the tax payers. Finally, there's no conclusive evidence to prove any of this.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
595. TomTaylor
6:37 AM GMT on March 22, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:


You mean like the aliens in my backyard? Or how about the invisible dragon sitting behind me?

Seriously though, I'm sorry I don't attribute the United States' relative luck with hurricanes since 2008 to cloud seeding and the consequent altering of the synoptic scale pattern. Not to say that you do either, but I know some that do.
agreed
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
594. OracleDeAtlantis
6:19 AM GMT on March 22, 2012
Quoting Skyepony:


UCAR mentions hurricane modification. I don't think that's done so much through cloud seeding anymore. In I think '08 Homeland Security tried to drag NOAA back into Weather modification concerning hurricanes. They want no part of weather modification other than issuing permits, research & such. The last few years we've seen this anomaly on MIMIC when there is a major threat. It turns & weakens hard. When I see it I drop total faith in my cast & the models. Even seen it on one about to nail I think Gaum. Some one saved it from Irene. I pointed this out when it happened in real time, the images haven't been fixed or anything. The first image..that may be coming from one of those harrp stations in the Caribbean. Most I've seen looks like they come from a ship or a few ships in a row placed nearby like the second image.
Last year was weird, I agree.

I think those of us who follow tropical systems carefully all saw some things that didn't seem to follow our expectations of development. However, these rapid declines in intensity could be related to other factors that we're not fully aware of, or understand.

I think this year may be the year we can tell if something or someone is attempting to modify hurricane intensity and development.

One thing I would expect, if some form of experimental modification of hurricane intensity is ongoing, is the latent heat, which is supposed to be transferred to the arctic latitudes, as a natural release valve.

So if true, we could be seeing the latent heat resulting from this sort of experimentation, if indeed it is occurring.

It could also be something besides HAARP; something we're not aware of, in terms of advanced weaponry. The reason I say this, is because HAARP is relatively easy to detect by scientists who study the ionosphere. They consider HAARP signals an annoyance in some cases, and record them while doing their independent research. So it would be very hard for any government to get away with obvious tinkering, unless there was an agreement on a global scale, and this is very unlikely, because some nations could argue that our experiment is having a butterfly effect on their weather, and hold U.S. accountable.

A secret device or technology is very possible, and it's something we could expect to see in the future, as well as testing of such a device or devices.

Good post, but let's not point to HAARP too quickly. That would be the last of my guesses.
Member Since: August 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 504
593. TomTaylor
6:09 AM GMT on March 22, 2012
Quoting MississippiWx:


Just part of the stair-stepping process. You can see how it crashed from the 30 range down to 0, only to go up again. However, for everyone step it climbs back up, it seems it takes two steps down.
That depends what portion of the graph you look at. Also, there is no guarantee that the graph will continue to stair-step downward, yet you do seem to imply that it will. While MY best guess is we will end up with neutral conditions, and possibly weak El Nino conditions toward the middle or end of the season, I always try to stress the large amount of uncertainty when forecasting future El Nino conditions. Jus sayin'


Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
592. KoritheMan
5:53 AM GMT on March 22, 2012
Quoting Skyepony:


UCAR mentions hurricane modification. I don't think that's done so much through cloud seeding anymore. In I think '08 Homeland Security tried to drag NOAA back into Weather modification concerning hurricanes. They want no part of weather modification other than issuing permits, research & such. The last few years we've seen this anomaly on MIMIC when there is a major threat. It turns & weakens hard. When I see it I drop total faith in my cast & the models. Even seen it on one about to nail I think Gaum. Some one saved it from Irene. I pointed this out when it happened in real time, the images haven't been fixed or anything. The first image..that may be coming from one of those harrp stations in the Caribbean. Most I've seen looks like they come from a ship or a few ships in a row placed nearby like the second image.


Hurricanes naturally weaken when they approach land due to unfavorable environmental factors. I see no reason to assume HAARP is doing it.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 560 Comments: 20030
591. KoritheMan
5:51 AM GMT on March 22, 2012
Quoting wxmod:


Why do you keep saying the word conspiracy? I've sent government links for tons of stuff you didn't have a clue about. Like I said, keep an open mind. I hear you trying to close it. That's not a good thing.


I don't see the word "conspiracy" anywhere in my post. Do you?

Furthermore, I did check your links. And so far, I'm not impressed. It's obvious from the links that weather modification is ongoing. But that doesn't mean it works. People can believe something that seems to have evidence, yet still be greatly misled. A good example would be the placebo effect. Give someone an unknown substance, claim it can cure their influenza, and watch the magic happen. While the two examples are perhaps not totally conflated, I'm sure you get the point I'm making.

Also, retaining an open mind does not entail accepting things without evidence. There is evidence of ongoing weather modification programs run by state governments. That's it. There isn't any evidence of visible weather modification, not on the mesoscale, and certainly not on the synoptic scale.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 560 Comments: 20030
590. Skyepony (Mod)
5:41 AM GMT on March 22, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:


You mean like the aliens in my backyard? Or how about the invisible dragon sitting behind me?

Seriously though, I'm sorry I don't attribute the United States' relative luck with hurricanes since 2008 to cloud seeding and the consequent altering of the synoptic scale pattern. Not to say that you do either, but I know some that do.


UCAR mentions hurricane modification. I don't think that's done so much through cloud seeding anymore. In I think '08 Homeland Security tried to drag NOAA back into Weather modification concerning hurricanes. They want no part of weather modification other than issuing permits, research & such. The last few years we've seen this anomaly on MIMIC when there is a major threat. It turns & weakens hard. When I see it I drop total faith in my cast & the models. Even seen it on one about to nail I think Gaum. Some one saved it from Irene. I pointed this out when it happened in real time, the images haven't been fixed or anything. The first image..that may be coming from one of those harrp stations in the Caribbean. Most I've seen looks like they come from a ship or a few ships in a row placed nearby like the second image.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37469
589. Minnemike
5:30 AM GMT on March 22, 2012
Quoting wxmod:


Why do you keep saying the word conspiracy? I've sent government links for tons of stuff you didn't have a clue about. Like I said, keep an open mind. I hear you trying to close it. That's not a good thing.
why do you keep citing HAARP?
it's clear several here have been to the website, myself included. have you?
or is it a case of "what they aren't telling you"...
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1320
588. wxmod
5:25 AM GMT on March 22, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:


You mean like the aliens in my backyard? Or how about the invisible dragon sitting behind me?

Seriously though, I'm sorry I don't attribute the United States' relative luck with hurricanes since 2008 to cloud seeding and the consequent altering of the synoptic scale pattern. Not to say that you do either, but I know some that do.


Why do you keep saying the word conspiracy? I've sent government links for tons of stuff you didn't have a clue about. Like I said, keep an open mind. I hear you trying to close it. That's not a good thing.
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
587. KoritheMan
5:21 AM GMT on March 22, 2012
Quoting wxmod:


There's a lot they haven't told you.


You mean like the aliens in my backyard? Or how about the invisible dragon sitting behind me?

Seriously though, I'm sorry I don't attribute the United States' relative luck with hurricanes since 2008 to cloud seeding and the consequent altering of the synoptic scale pattern. Not to say that you do either, but I know some that do.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 560 Comments: 20030
586. Jedkins01
5:13 AM GMT on March 22, 2012
Quoting wxmod:


So you're saying it is possible to look at a satellite photo and give an expert opinion that could be construed as evidence of what is going on on the ground? Without doing a study? Hmm.



No, because I know what they look like. I plan to not argue with you anymore, as you clearly aren't worth my time.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7310
585. wxmod
5:11 AM GMT on March 22, 2012
Quoting Jedkins01:



No, its not an opinion, I know that's what it is, because I've observed thousands of them on satellite before. In fact, I was tracking that very same convective complex, and in the loop, you can see the outflow boundary pulling away from the parent convective cells, soon after the convection began to weaken as expected.




So you're saying it is possible to look at a satellite photo and give an expert opinion that could be construed as evidence of what is going on on the ground? Without doing a study? Hmm.
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.